Part One: Probability

Ellsberg II: An Extension of Ellsberg’s Urns

The Urns (hereafter called Bowls):

The 1^st Bowl: 20% Red, 40% White, 40% Black

The 2^nd Bowl: 20% Red, 80% White or Black (Mix Not Specified)

The Game: Each play consists of a single draw with replacement (1 DWR) from a bowl: The player’s task is to bet on either Black or White. Then:

If Red shows, the player loses 2 and play stops.

If either White or Black shows, and if the draw matches the bet, the player wins 1 and play can continue.

If either White or Black shows, and if the draw does not match the bet, the player loses 1 and play can continue.

The 1^st Game: Play proceeds, with each draw (1 DWR) coming from the 1^st Bowl.

The 2^nd Game: Play proceeds, with each draw (1 DWR) coming from the 2^nd Bowl.

Discuss each game, as before.